暗号資産あんごうしさん市場しじょう急落きゅうらくの背景はいけいにある構造的こうぞうてき要因よういんと市場しじょう心理しんりの変遷へんせん

The crypto asset virtual currency market has always been known for its high volatility, but the market movements over the past few weeks have been filled with fluctuations far exceeding the usual standards.

Especially, in the past six weeks, market value has disappeared by as much as one trillion US dollars about 155.8 trillion yen, and even investors who have supported crypto assets for many years are beginning to waver in their beliefs.

Among new investors, there has been a wave of withdrawals from the virtual asset market, and this phenomenon is further increasing the overall instability of the market.

Bitcoin is a representative cryptocurrency, and at the beginning of October, it reached a record high of $126,000. However, it then plummeted and fell below $81,000 on the 21st of this month.

Although there was a temporary recovery over the weekend, on the 24th it once again surpassed $88,000 along with the stock market rebound. However, the market outlook remains uncertain, and it is likely to record a historic decline this month.

Furthermore, there is still no definite prediction as to whether the market has already bottomed out.

Deutsche Bank analysts said on the 24th, It is still unclear whether Bitcoin will stabilize after this adjustment. Previous declines were mainly due to speculative trading by individual investors, but this years decline has been driven by the entry of large institutional investors, policy fluctuations, and global macroeconomic trends, which is a major difference.

In recent years, the price fluctuations of crypto assets have generally tended to move in tandem with the stock market, but the current market instability is even more serious than that.

The main reason is that mainstream funds, which are different in nature from the funds of crypto asset investors, are flowing into the market.

While the S&P 500 has only dropped about 3% from its recent high, Bitcoin has fallen about 30% from its peak, officially entering a bear market, which is particularly noteworthy.

If this trend continues, this month could be the worst month since the collapse of the FTX trading exchange during the crypto winter of 2022.

There are two main reasons for the growing instability in both the stock market and the crypto asset market.

First, investors are concerned about the possibility that the Federal Reserve FRB will continue to cut interest rates.

Secondly, there are concerns that the AI artificial intelligence bubble may burst in the near future.

Digital assets, like high-tech stocks, are highly sensitive to the Federal Reserves interest rate policies, and these factors greatly influence the sentiment of crypto asset traders.

Fluctuations in interest rates have a direct impact on borrowing costs and can significantly reduce investors risk tolerance.

Furthermore, the crypto asset market still has not fully recovered after the flash crash that occurred on October 10.

On that day, panic selling occurred because the President of the United States reignited trade friction with China, and in the highly leveraged cryptocurrency market, stop-loss orders were triggered one after another.

As a result, $19 billion worth of crypto assets disappeared from the market in just one day.

In response to this sharp decline, many investors withdrew from the market, causing price fluctuations of Bitcoin and other assets to become even more volatile.

Due to the impact of the flash crash, many investors were forced to sell their assets to meet margin calls requests for additional collateral, and this chain reaction further accelerated the market decline.

The more the price of Bitcoin falls, the more margin calls are demanded by securities firms, which continues to trigger a chain reaction of selling.

The difference between this crash and previous ones is that, through the spot Bitcoin funds approved by U.S. regulators last year, billions of dollars in major capital have flowed into the market.

Mainstream investors are entering the cryptocurrency market with the aim of riding the wave of rising prices, but they do not resonate as strongly with the ideals of cryptocurrencies as early investors do.

People who joined early tend to stick to their beliefs, supported by enthusiastic online communities, and often buy more even when prices drop.

Steve Sosnick, Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers, said, At present, it can be said that Bitcoin is in the hands of retail investors.

As a result, general investors are likely to regard Bitcoin as a speculative asset in their portfolios and treat it similarly to other mainstream investment products with high volatility.

Changes in market structure and fluctuations in market sentiment can be said to be the background of this sharp decline.