アップル株かぶ、2026年ねんに40％下落げらくする可能性かのうせい

Apple AAPL shares are expected to face a significant correction in the coming years.

Over the past three years, the companys stock price has nearly doubled from around $130 at the end of 2022 to its current all-time high of about $275, but its revenue has shown little growth during the same period.

Regarding profit margins, there was only a slight improvement from 30.3% in 2022 to 31.9%, and the main factor for this was not a significant increase in demand, but rather changes in the product mix.

The sharp rise in stock prices is mainly due to an increase in the P/E ratio price-earnings ratio, and does not reflect the companys fundamental growth potential.

There are various opinions about the P/E doubling, but we do not believe that this guarantees sustainable growth.

Apples sales growth rate has slowed significantly, with the average annual growth rate over the past three fiscal years remaining at just 2.4%.

In particular, the temporary boost in demand from people upgrading to this year’s iPhone 17 is not expected to contribute to the long-term growth trend.

Furthermore, Apple is currently not keeping up with the rapid advancements in the field of AI.

Siris full-scale upgrade has been continuously delayed, and Apple is falling behind competitors like Google when it comes to AI features.

Furthermore, despite being the first new product line in about ten years, Vision Pro is expected to fall short of market expectations, with first-year sales projected to remain at around 400,000 to 500,000 units.

It can be said that the rise in stock prices is not due to the companys actual growth, but rather the result of aggressive financial strategies.

In fact, over the past three years, Apple has spent about $280 billion on share buybacks, significantly reducing the number of outstanding shares and increasing its earnings per share EPS.

On the other hand, in the most recent fiscal year, while R&D expenses were limited to $34 billion and capital investment to $13 billion, share buybacks amounted to $91 billion, revealing a clear imbalance in capital allocation.

Generally, companies with high valuation multiples actively reinvest with the aim of future growth.

For example, Google is focusing on developing AI infrastructure and plans to significantly increase its capital investment to between $91 billion and $93 billion in 2025.

On the other hand, Apple is limiting its investments in new growth areas and prioritizing returning value to shareholders.

Currently, Apple’s PSR Price-to-Sales Ratio is about 9.9 times, which is significantly higher than in the past, including the Steve Jobs era, and is considered to be at a historically very high level.

This high valuation reflects the market’s expectation of strong future growth, but in reality, there are factors missing to support sustained growth, such as stagnant sales, lagging behind in the AI field, failed new products, and an imbalance in capital allocation.

Therefore, although Apple is being evaluated as if it has entered a new phase of growth, its actual performance, innovation, and capital policy have not kept up with these expectations.

The gap between this evaluation and reality is precisely the main cause of the potential risk of future stock price declines.

It is possible that an adjustment of around 40% may take place in 2026.