氷河ひょうが消失しょうしつの危機きき的加速かそく――今世紀こんせいき半なかばに年間ねんかん最大さいだい4000個この消滅しょうめつが予測よそくされる世界せかい

When the Pizol Glacier in eastern Switzerland, which had a history of about 700 years, disappeared, hundreds of people gathered in a solemn atmosphere to bid it a final farewell.

In the funeral held in Switzerland in 2019, attendees wore black clothes, offered flowers, and listened to the priests words of remembrance, demonstrating that the disappearance of glaciers is not just a natural phenomenon but also an event of great cultural significance.

Pizol Glacier was once magnificent in scale, but due to human-induced climate change, it shrank to a small patch of ice and eventually disappeared.

Such glacial disappearance is not limited to Pizol; over the past several decades, thousands of glaciers have gradually vanished, and the rate of this disappearance is accelerating as global warming progresses.

According to the latest research, if greenhouse gas emissions continue at the current rate, up to 4,000 glaciers around the world will disappear every year by the middle of this century, and this number is predicted to reach its peak.

This is equivalent to all the glaciers in the European Alps disappearing within a year, vividly illustrating the severity of global environmental changes.

Previous studies have mainly focused on the reduction of glacier volume and area due to rising temperatures, and have paid little attention to the total number of glaciers.

However, since there is no clear definition regarding the number of glaciers and it is difficult to identify small glaciers or ice masses covered with debris, it is not easy to determine the exact number.

According to the most reliable estimates, there are currently more than 200,000 glaciers on Earth.

Nevertheless, the researchers emphasize the importance of understanding the details of when and how each glacier disappeared.

Matthias Huss, a glaciologist at ETH Zurich, pointed out that climate change not only causes glaciers to melt, but is also causing many glaciers to disappear completely, emphasizing the need to monitor each glacier individually.

The research team analyzed glaciers using a global database and identified the peak of glacier disappearance, which is the period when the number of glaciers disappearing each year is at its highest.

In that case, disappearance is defined as when the glaciers area decreases to less than 0.01 square kilometers, or its volume falls below 1% of its original size.

According to the analysis, the peak of glacier disappearance will occur around the middle of this century, but the timing and scale of this peak largely depend on the extent of global warming.

If the temperature rise is kept within 1.5 degrees compared to before the Industrial Revolution, the peak will be around 2041, and about 2,000 glaciers will disappear every year.

On the other hand, if the temperature rises by up to 4 degrees, the peak will come in the mid-2050s, and up to 4,000 glaciers could disappear each year.

It will be three to five times faster than the current speed.

Even if all the climate change measures set by each country are implemented, it is predicted that the Earths temperature will rise by about 2.7 degrees. At this level, the disappearance of glaciers is expected to continue for 40 to 60 years, with about 3,000 glaciers vanishing each year.

According to regional analysis, in areas with many small glaciers such as the European Alps, parts of the Andes, and northern Asia, more than half of the glaciers may disappear within the next 20 years, with the peak of disappearance expected to come as early as around 2040.

On the other hand, in areas with large glaciers such as Greenland and the Arctic regions of Russia, the peak of disappearance is predicted to occur in the latter half of this century.

In this way, the disappearance of glaciers is not merely a natural phenomenon, but depending on the extent of climate change, it can be said to be a serious problem that brings immeasurable impacts to human society and ecosystems.