日銀にちぎん 今年度こんねんどの経済けいざい成長せいちょう率りつの見通みとおしを下方かほう修正しゅうせい 年内ねんない利上りあげ困難こんなんか

As the Trump administration in the United States implements tariff measures, the Bank of Japan, at its monetary policy meeting on the 1st, significantly revised its economic growth forecast for this fiscal year downward. At a press conference, Governor Ueda also stated that due to high uncertainty, the next interest rate hike would be a difficult decision.

In response to this, some in the financial markets believe that an additional interest rate hike within the year will be difficult.

The Bank of Japan, at its monetary policy meeting on the 1st, maintained its current monetary policy and lowered its outlook for future economic growth and inflation rates from previous forecasts, citing increased uncertainty due to the Trump administration’s tariff measures.

In particular, this fiscal years growth outlook is a real GDP growth rate of plus 0.

5% and the previous forecast announced this January of plus 1

I have significantly reduced it from 1%.

The Bank of Japan has maintained its policy of considering further interest rate hikes while monitoring economic and price trends, but Governor Ueda stated at a press conference, I believe there is a fairly high probability that changes in various conditions, including tariffs, will force us to revise our outlook, indicating that the next rate hike will be a difficult decision.

He also stated, when asked if he would raise interest rates even if the “underlying inflation rate,” which he places importance on in policy decisions, remains sluggish, that he is “not considering raising rates forcibly.”

Up until now, there had been expectations among market participants that the Bank of Japan would raise interest rates about once every six months, partly due to continued wage increases in Japan. However, after the press conference on the 1st, some now believe that an additional rate hike within the year has become unlikely.

In a situation where trends and the spread of impacts surrounding tariffs are difficult to predict, the Bank of Japan is likely to face tough policy decisions going forward.

Experts: Will the timing of the next rate hike be later than expected? In response to the Bank of Japans recent decision and Governor Uedas press conference, there is a growing view among experts that the timing of the next rate hike may be later than previously expected.

Mr. Hideo Kumano, Chief Economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute, said that the Bank of Japans outlook for economic growth rates for this fiscal year and next, as presented in the Outlook Report, was lower than his own forecasts. He added, Governor Ueda indicated at the press conference a scenario in which the underlying inflation temporarily stalls and then recovers.

I got the impression that as long as theyre treading water, rate hikes will probably be put on hold.

On top of that, it is now expected that the timing of the next interest rate hike, which had previously been forecast for July this year, will be revised to as early as December this year, or possibly even after the start of next year.

As for the reason, it is believed that by that time, the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff measures will have eased, and movements toward wage increases for next year will also be observable.

On the other hand, Junichi Makino, Chief Economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, has revised his forecast for the timing of an additional rate hike from June or July this year to March next year, indicating that it will be difficult within this year.

The economic growth rate and inflation rate in the outlook report have been revised downward, leading to the view that the rate hike cycle has taken a pause. It is expected that, with the uncertainty of tariff measures under the Trump administration fading and after confirming movements toward next years spring labor negotiations, a rate hike may be implemented.