FRB パウエルパウエル議長ぎちょう “雇用こように下した振ぶれリスク” 利下りさげの可能性かのうせい示唆しさ

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell gave a speech on the 22nd at a symposium being held in Jackson Hole in the western United States.

In this statement, Chairman Powell pointed out regarding the employment statistics released this month, They suggest that downside risks to employment are increasing, and there is a possibility that this could quickly surface in the form of a rapid rise in layoffs and the unemployment rate.

On top of that, he stated that an adjustment in policy stance may be justified if the risk of a slowdown in the labor market increases, suggesting the possibility of proceeding with interest rate cuts based on employment data.

On the other hand, it was analyzed that the impact of the Trump administration’s tariff measures is clearly reflected in U.S. prices, and in the short term, the risks are tilted toward higher inflation and lower employment, making for a difficult situation.

He also stated, There is no predetermined course for monetary policy, and once again emphasized the previous stance of carefully deciding on rate cuts based on data, economic outlook, and risk analysis.

Regarding the impact of the Trump administrations policies, it was stated that the American economy is facing new challenges, noting that the significant increase in tariffs has changed the global trade system, and the tightening of immigration policies has caused a sharp slowdown in labor force growth.

He pointed out that there remains significant uncertainty about what form these policies will ultimately take and how they will have a lasting impact on the economy.

Regarding the framework for medium- to long-term monetary policy, it is necessary for it to evolve in accordance with changes in the economic structure and our understanding of those changes.

He pointed out that the neutral interest rate, which neither overheats nor cools the economy, may be higher than it was in the 2010s, reflecting changes in factors such as productivity and demographics.