FRB議長ぎちょう ジャクソンホール講演こうえんへ 利下りさげに関かんする発信はっしんに注目ちゅうもく

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Powell, who has clashed with U.S. President Trump over monetary policy, will give a speech in Jackson Hole in the western United States on the night of the 22nd Japan time.

As expectations grow in the financial markets that the FRB will move to cut interest rates in September, attention is focused on what kind of message will be conveyed regarding future rate cut policies, taking into account the impact of the Trump administrations tariff measures and the latest economic indicators.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give a speech at 11:00 p.m. Japan time on the 22nd at the symposium being held in Jackson Hole, a highland resort area in western Wyoming, USA.

Chairman Powell has repeatedly faced demands from President Trump to cut interest rates, but he has taken a cautious stance against rushing to lower rates, citing the strength of the U.S. economy and the risk that tariffs imposed by the Trump administration could reignite inflation, leading to a standoff between them.

On the other hand, in August, the U.S. employment statistics for July that were released showed that the growth in nonfarm payrolls fell short of market expectations, and previous data was also significantly revised downward. As a result, in the financial markets, there is a growing view that the FRB will move to cut interest rates at its meeting next month.

At this historic symposium, which has come to serve as a venue for predicting the future direction of monetary policy, attention is focused on what message Chairman Powell will send regarding the future policy on interest rate cuts and the economic outlook.

The background behind the deepening conflict between U.S. President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is that while President Trump has been calling for interest rate cuts to boost the economy, Chairman Powell has been cautious about rushing to lower rates.

The confrontation began during the first term of the Trump administration, when Chairman Powell was appointed. President Trump pressured Chairman Powell to cut interest rates, criticizing him by saying things like the Fed is too slow to respond.

President Trump repeatedly called Chairman Powell a “too slow man” and continued to demand rate cuts even after January of his second term this year. However, Chairman Powell was cautious about rushing to cut rates, taking into account risks such as inflation accelerating again due to the Trump administrations tariff measures, and the confrontation between the two became even more intense.

On July 13th, President Trump told reporters, America should have the lowest interest rates on earth, but thats not the case.

He’s just refusing it, he said. If Mr. Powell resigns, that would be wonderful.

He said that he wants him to resign.

Furthermore, on July 24th, he made an unusual visit to the headquarters of the Federal Reserve and once again demanded a rate cut right in front of Chairman Powell, saying, I want him to lower interest rates.

On the other hand, at the press conference on July 30, Chairman Powell was asked about the impact of President Trumps remarks on the independence of the Federal Reserve, and responded, Governments of advanced countries have maintained a distance from the decisions of central banks.

If such a distance did not exist, for example, there would be a strong temptation to manipulate interest rates to influence elections.

He emphasized the importance of independence, saying, That is not what we want.

The symposium at Jackson Hole, also known as the Jackson Hole Conference, has been held since 1982 at a hotel in Jackson Hole, a highland resort in the western United States state of Wyoming overlooking the Rocky Mountains.

The reason it has attracted attention is that, in the past, there have been several occasions when important messages shaping the future direction of monetary policy were delivered here.

At the meeting in August 2010, then-FRB Chairman Bernanke made remarks suggesting additional monetary easing, and in August 2014, ECB President Draghi also hinted at further monetary easing.

Chairman Powells term is set to end next May, and since this is likely to be his last speech here as chairman, there is heightened interest in the content of his address.

The increase in the number of people employed outside the agricultural sector, announced by the Ministry of Labor on August 1, averaged about 35,000 over the three months from May to July this year, marking the lowest level since the spring of 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic.

What is believed to be behind this is that the outlook for the economy has become uncertain due to the impact of the Trump administrations tariff measures.

A company operating a coffee chain based in Chicago has reduced new hiring due to the impact of tariff measures.

The cost of purchasing coffee beans imported from countries such as Ethiopia and Colombia has risen by 15% to 20%, and the procurement costs for imported coffee cups and holders have also increased, putting pressure on our business operations.

Since low prices have been our selling point, we plan to limit the price increase to just a few percent. At the same time, ahead of summer, we will reduce new hires by about five people compared to our original plan and cut personnel costs to absorb the increase in expenses.

Owner Nikki Bravo says that not only rising costs, but also the uncertain economic outlook have led to more selective hiring, stating, In the food and beverage industry, the mood and atmosphere affect the number of customers.

The uncertainty about the future of the economy has become a major concern for management, he said.

In this, Mr. Blinder described the atmosphere of the first nights dinner party, saying, Many people were worried about the future of the FRB.

Because President Trump continues to attack the Federal Reserve, he said.

On top of that, Chairman Powell indicated that he does not intend to confront President Trump, stating, I will likely fulfill my duties of leading monetary policy until the end of my term.

Regarding the current state of the American economy, there are signs of a slowdown in the labor market and economic growth, and the inflation rate also tends to rise somewhat.

This is the wrong direction, and the effects of tariffs are gradually beginning to appear, he pointed out.

On the other hand, he indicated that the U.S. economy is holding up well and that the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry, suggesting that while there will be serious discussions at next months meeting about whether to cut interest rates, there is also a possibility that a rate cut will be postponed.

Regarding President Trump putting pressure on the Fed, Mr. Blinder said, Leaders of any country almost always want to keep interest rates low.

Thats why wise politicians understood that, in the long run, it was better for themselves and their country to entrust the authority over monetary policy to independent bureaucrats.

He stated, Political intervention in monetary policy will lead to bad outcomes, such as causing inflation, expressing a strong sense of crisis that the independence of the FRB is being threatened.