主食しゅしょく用よう米まいの需要じゅよう見通みとおし “最大さいだいで前年ぜんねんと同どう程度ていど” 農林水産省のうりんすいさんしょう

On the 19th, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries officially announced its outlook for staple rice demand for the coming year, stating that, taking into account inbound demand and other factors, it is expected to be about the same as the previous years actual results at most.

On the other hand, production is expected to exceed that level, so the main focus will be whether rice prices stabilize.

This was presented at the panel of experts of the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries held on the 19th.

According to this, the domestic demand for rice as a staple food for one year until next June is expected to be between 6.97 million and 7.11 million tons.

Taking into account inbound demand and the recent upward trend in per capita consumption, it is expected to reach up to about the same level as the previous years actual demand of 7.11 million tons.

On the other hand, when estimated based on the average consumption over the past five years, it is projected to be 140,000 tons less than the previous year, allowing for a range in the outlook.

The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries had previously projected that rice demand would decrease by about 100,000 tons each year due to factors such as population decline. However, in the past two years, actual demand has significantly exceeded these projections, which some have pointed to as a cause of soaring prices. Therefore, this time, the calculation method has been revised to include factors such as inbound demand.

On the other hand, the production outlook has also been presented, and as a result of increased production in the main rice-producing regions, production is expected to exceed demand, reaching between 7.28 million and 7.45 million tons.

The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries believes that rice prices will gradually stabilize, as production will exceed demand, but the key point will be whether prices actually follow this outlook.

</blockquote>Rice demand forecasts for the past two years Results greatly diverged from reality The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries’ rice demand forecasts for the past two years have turned out to be significantly different from the actual situation.

The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries has estimated that domestic rice demand has recently been decreasing by about 100,000 tons each year due to factors such as population decline and diversification of diets.

However, for the crop from two years ago, the actual demand was 7.05 million tons, which was 230,000 tons higher than the projected demand of 6.82 million tons. In addition, last years actual figure was also 7.11 million tons, which is 370,000 tons more than the projection.

The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries cites reasons such as the fact that previous estimates did not take into account inbound demand or the recent increase in per capita rice consumption.

Due to the effects of high temperatures, there have also been cases where the yield after milling rice decreases. Therefore, regarding the outlook for staple rice demand for the coming year, which is usually announced around late July each year, this year the publication has been postponed while the calculation method is being reviewed.