米べいFRB 0.25れいてんにご％利下りさげ決定けってい 年内ねんない後あと2回にかいの利下りさげ想定そうてい

The U.S. Federal Reserve Board FRB, at the monetary policy meeting held through the 17th, cited increased downside risks to employment and set the policy interest rate at 0.

President Trump has repeatedly called for interest rate cuts, and for the first time under the current Trump administration, the Fed decided to cut rates at this meeting—the first rate cut in six meetings since last December.

The interest rate cut is the first in six meetings since December 2024, and the first under the current Trump administration.

At the press conference after the meeting, Chairman Powell explained the reason for the rate cut, stating, Downside risks to employment are increasing.

In addition, according to the policy rate outlook by the 19 meeting participants, it is expected that there will be two more rate cuts within the year, which is one more than the previous projection.

However, opinions within the FRB are divided, with seven members indicating that further interest rate cuts within the year are unnecessary.

Also, Chairman Powell said at the press conference, The impact of tariff measures on inflation is still unclear.

There is a possibility that the impact on inflation could become more persistent, and that risk needs to be assessed and managed, he said, indicating that even as President Trump repeatedly calls for interest rate cuts, he will continue to make monetary policy decisions based on economic data and carefully assess the effects of tariff measures.

This outlook is called the dot chart because participants indicate the interest rates they each consider appropriate using dots, and in the market, the median of these dots is regarded as the interest rate level the Fed is aiming for.

Looking at the outlooks presented by each of the 19 participants, 9 expect two more rate cuts within the year, while 7 believe that no further rate cuts are necessary.

Also, one person is expecting five more rate cuts, and that is believed to be Mr. Stephen Moore, who is close to President Trump and has called for significant rate cuts.

The FRB presented its outlook for economic growth and other indicators along with the policy interest rate.

It appears to indicate that there remains a persistent view among participants that the Trump administrations tariff measures will lead to higher prices.

On the other hand, he stated that most of what is happening in the labor market is more deeply related to immigration policy than to tariff measures, indicating his view that stricter immigration policies are having a greater impact on the labor market.

In Washington, everything is viewed through the lens of whether it is advantageous or disadvantageous for a particular party or politician, and it may be hard to believe that we see things from a completely different perspective, but the Fed takes a more long-term view, he said, emphasizing the Feds independence.

Regarding the 5% rate cut, there was absolutely no broad support.

When monetary policy is not appropriate and needs to shift in a new direction, significant interest rate hikes or cuts are necessary, but I think this years policy has been functioning appropriately so far.

I believe our decision to assess tariffs, inflation, and labor market trends was the right one, he said.

He stated, There is also a possibility that the impact on inflation could become more persistent, and that risk needs to be assessed and managed.

On the other hand, the inflation rate has recently risen and remains at a somewhat high level.

[Explanation] Why did they decide to cut interest rates at this timing? Q

Because there are changes occurring in the labor market that has supported the American economy.

The Federal Reserve has so far weighed the two risks of a slowdown in employment and a reacceleration of inflation when determining the timing of rate cuts, but it has now judged that the risk of a slowdown in employment has become more significant.

Even as I interview companies across the United States, more and more of them are holding off on new hires or even proceeding with layoffs in order to cope with rising costs caused by tariff measures.

I think the FRB tried to prevent further slowdown in employment by supporting the economy through interest rate cuts.

It has been pointed out that President Trump is trying to increase his influence over the Fed by demanding interest rate cuts, but how will the Fed respond?

Chairman Powell stated at the press conference, At the FRB, there is a deeply rooted organizational culture of working based on data and considering nothing else, and everyone is strongly committed to this.

It was impressive how they emphasized their stance that independence would not be compromised, especially since Mr. Milan, who is close to President Trump, had just been appointed as a board member.

The Federal Reserve will continue to face the difficult decision of determining the pace at which to cut interest rates, as it keeps a close watch on the two risks of slowing employment and a resurgence of inflation, even under pressure from the Trump administration.

[Explanation] The impact on the Japanese economy is Q

If the Federal Reserves interest rate cuts help support the U.S. economy, it will also have a positive effect on the Japanese economy.

America is Japans largest export destination, with the amount exceeding 21 trillion yen in the past fiscal year.

However, the outlook is not necessarily optimistic.

Why do you think its not a situation we can be optimistic about?

Because it remains difficult to predict how much the tariff measures imposed by the Trump administration will affect the economies of the United States and Japan.

On the 17th, according to last months trade statistics announced by the Ministry of Finance, exports of automobiles, a key industry in Japan, to the United States dropped by a significant 28% compared to the same month last year.

The tariffs on automobiles and other goods that the United States imports from Japan have been reduced to 15%, but they still remain at a high level.

In contrast to the FRB, the Bank of Japan will decide on additional interest rate hikes in response to improvements in economic and price conditions.

At the Bank of Japan meeting starting on the 18th, discussions are expected to focus on keeping the policy interest rate unchanged. However, if the U.S. moves toward lowering interest rates while Japan moves toward raising them, there are concerns that the yen could appreciate further.

How the Trump tariffs and the differences in monetary policy between Japan and the U.S. will affect the real economy, and as a result, how these factors will impact not only corporate performance but also the momentum of wage increases, will be the main focus going forward.