主食しゅしょく用よう米まいの需要じゅよう見通みとおし 公表こうひょう見送みおくりで調整ちょうせい 農水省のうすいしょう 例年れいねん7月しちがつまとめ

The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries has decided to postpone the release of its forecast for staple rice demand, which is usually compiled in late July, and is making arrangements to withhold its announcement this month.

There have been claims that unrealistic demand forecasts have contributed to shortages and price hikes, and the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries plans to review this issue in conjunction with revising its rice policies.

The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries usually holds a council meeting in late July each year to announce the demand outlook for staple rice for the coming year.

This outlook is based on the fact that per capita rice consumption has been declining year by year, and the population is also decreasing. It is therefore estimated that demand will drop by about 100,000 tons recently, and many producers across the country have been curbing production based on this.

However, experts have pointed out that in recent years, the outlook has sometimes been far from reality, and if demand suddenly increases as it did last year, it could lead to problems such as rice shortages and price surges.

For this reason, it has been revealed that the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries is making arrangements to postpone the announcement of the rice demand outlook at the council meeting to be held next week.

The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries plans to review rice demand forecasts based on the rice policy, which is set to be fundamentally revised from fiscal 2027. The key points will be whether they can produce forecasts that lead to stable increases in production by more accurately grasping actual demand, or how to design support systems to avoid negative impacts on producers if increased production causes rice prices to fall.