小泉こいずみ農相のうしょう コメの作柄さくがら示しめす “作況さっきょう指数しすう公表こうひょうを廃止はいし”

Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Koizumi announced to reporters on the afternoon of the 16th that he intends to abolish the annual publication of the crop condition index, which indicates the state of the rice harvest each year.

On top of that, they expressed the intention to create more accurate statistics based on data such as harvest yields from producers.

In this statement, Minister Koizumi said, We have decided to abolish the publication of the crop situation index, which has been conducted every autumn for about 70 years as an indicator of the annual rice harvest conditions.

In the future, we would like to further improve accuracy by utilizing the latest technologies such as artificial satellites and AI, and establish a new foundation for agricultural policy, he said.

On that basis, as a direction for the review, we will explore the utilization of meteorological data and satellite data.

Additionally, as an initiative to improve accuracy, we would like to review the current survey system that relies excessively on sample surveys and consider shifting to a survey method that mainly uses harvest data from producers.

There are also combines used by large-scale producers that allow you to know in real time how much yield has been harvested, so I would like to make use of these kinds of things as well, he said.

What is the crop condition index? Some say it feels different from reality. Regarding rice yields, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries derives the figures each year from sample surveys of about 8,000 randomly selected rice paddies nationwide.

After actually harvesting the rice and sifting it, the total amount of brown rice that could potentially be supplied as staple food is determined, and then the average yield of rice per 10 ares for that year is calculated.

The crop condition index is an indicator used to show the state of rice production for the year, calculated by determining the average yield per 10 ares for each prefecture and indexing it in comparison to an average year.

In terms of an index where the average year is set at 100: Poor is 94 or below, Slightly Poor is 95 to 98, Average is 99 to 101, Slightly Good is 102 to 105, and Good is 106 or above.

Regarding rice produced in the sixth year of Reiwa, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries announced that the nationwide crop index is 101, which is considered average compared to a normal year.

On the other hand, the total rice harvest in Japan is calculated by multiplying the national average yield per 10 ares by the total cultivated area nationwide. Last years staple rice harvest was reported as 6.79 million tons, which is over 180,000 tons more than the previous year.

However, some farmers and wholesalers have voiced concerns that this does not match their actual experience, saying that the harvest is not actually that large, and that a shortage in rice supply may be leading to the surge in prices.

Minister Koizumi, after exchanging opinions with rice producers and others in Fukushima Prefecture on the 15th, told reporters, We must take seriously the fact that farmers clearly stated that the data released by the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries does not match their own experiences. He also indicated that on the 16th, he would present a direction for reviewing indicators such as the crop condition index.

The rice wholesale company: Transaction prices are dropping sharply. A representative from the rice wholesale company feels that transaction prices have been dropping sharply since the release of reserve rice through negotiated contracts.

Ms. Kazusa Morishima 44, head of the rice division at Kanegae in Hirokawa Town, Fukuoka Prefecture, says, The trading price of rice peaked around May, and has been dropping almost every day since the government stockpiled rice through discretionary contracts became available.

According to Mr. Morishima, the price of spot transactions, in which wholesale companies exchange relatively small quantities of rice with each other, was between 48,000 and 49,000 yen per 60 kilograms of Koshihikari rice produced in the Kanto region last month, but recently it has dropped to the 35,000 yen range.

Receiving the release of reserve rice through negotiated contracts, wholesale companies, anticipating a surplus of rice from the 2024 harvest, are reportedly deciding, Lets sell it while we can.

In this situation, Morishimas company has decided to refrain from purchasing rice through spot transactions, as there is a possibility that rice trading prices may drop further in the future.

Wholesalers are closely watching the price of this year’s new rice, and while Miyazaki-grown Koshihikari will start appearing at the end of July, everyone is concerned about the possibility of a “reversal” where the new rice becomes cheaper than last year’s rice.

I think theyre in a wait-and-see situation, he said.

According to Mr. Morishima, retail stores that do not handle reserved rice through discretionary contracts are still receiving orders for brand-name rice, and demand remains strong.

For this reason, the retail price of 5 kilograms of rice is divided into three categories: rice from the 2024 harvest with higher purchase prices is in the 4,000-yen range, reserve rice purchased through competitive bidding is around 3,500 yen, and reserve rice purchased through negotiated contracts is about 2,000 yen.

Mr. Morishima said, The situation has changed drastically in the past week or two.

Its a bit scary that the price keeps dropping depending on how much other wholesale companies are offering.

He said, We just have to make the best decisions we can in each situation and keep going.

Rice stockpiled and sold through bidding is being sold at a reduced price: As the distribution of stockpiled rice sold by negotiated contracts progresses, a JA direct sales store in Saitama Prefecture has been selling rice stockpiled and sold through competitive bidding at a reduced price since early this month.

At the JA Saitama Chuo direct sales store in Higashimatsuyama City, stockpiled rice that was sold through competitive bidding had been sold at 3,600 yen including tax per 5 kilograms since April, but from the 4th of this month, the price has been reduced by 200 yen and is now being sold at 3,400 yen including tax per 5 kilograms.

It is said that the decision to lower prices was made in light of the fact that nearby retailers have started lowering prices on branded rice and that the distribution of low-priced, discretionary contract reserve rice is progressing in various regions.

Since the amount of reserve rice delivered through competitive bidding has increased, the purchase limit of 10 kilograms per family that had been in place until now was also removed as of the 4th of this month.

Regarding the future, we would like to consider how to handle pricing and restrictions when selling, depending on the situation of nearby retail stores and other factors.

A man in his 30s who bought two bags of stockpiled rice said, I have three children, so the price reduction is really helpful.

If rice isnt being sold, its hard to go around looking for it, so I hope I can keep getting it regularly from now on, they said.

Mr. Katsuyuki Sakamoto, the director of the Higashimatsuyama Agricultural Products Direct Sales Store, said, Since the topic of the reserved rice under discretionary contracts came up, the number of customers has slightly decreased.

We would like to continue monitoring price trends and set prices that meet consumer needs, they said.

Some small and medium-sized supermarkets, unable to procure reserve rice, are only selling branded and blended rice, and among these supermarkets, there are some experiencing a decline in rice sales.

The supermarket in Yokohama City was considering purchasing stockpiled rice through a discretionary contract, but gave up on applying because their annual handling volume did not meet the government’s application requirements.

We have also been informed by our supplier that they are unable to obtain stockpiled rice through competitive bidding.

Therefore, the only types of rice currently being sold in stores are brand-name rice and blended rice made from various varieties and production regions, and all of them are priced at over 5,000 yen including tax per 5 kilograms.

In this situation, rice sales from the beginning of this month to the 16th have reportedly decreased by about 15% compared to the same period last month.

However, since these types of rice are purchased at high prices, it is difficult to lower the retail price. Currently, to prevent excess inventory, only products that have been milled for a certain period of time are being sold at a discount.

Customers who came to buy rice said, As expected, its too expensive and we cant afford it.

I usually try to get creative with my cooking, like using Thai rice or mixing in barley.

Id like to try buying some if there is any stockpiled rice, they said.

Mr. Koji Kubota, a food buyer at Super Sercio Wadamachi, says, Recently, weve been experiencing situations where rice is left unsold, and weve reached a point where we have no choice but to sell it even at a loss.

We are hoping that the purchase price will go down, he said.